Using AI to Get Smart About Civics, Fast (Part 1)

Key takeaway: AI helps me get up to speed fast on election reform issues, but not so good on figuring out how to take action

Summary:
Warning: this is a long email, so skip around. I wanted to use some AI tools to help me understand some election reform issues. I didn’t get “answers” per se, but I did end up with a great starting point to understand the issues and a good reading list to learn more. Looking forward to the day when AI will also help me take some meaningful action

When in Doubt, Research?

Elections always result in some unhappy folks. This year, I’m guessing some folks are a lot sadder than normal. And, there are some folks that are feeling vindicated.

I’m in the “sad” camp, but mainly sad for America, democracy and civic engagement. This year’s election delivered candidates that weren’t great, each for their own reasons. While the voting was safe and secure, I am concerned about the process to get those two candidates onto the ballots.

Note: I’m going to sidestep a discussion of the candidates here ( let me know if you want to meet up and I’ll give you an earful about the imminent existential threat to our democracy).

But, maybe like me, you’re trying to understand the election results in the context of “how did we get here” and, just as importantly, “is there anything we can do to improve the process of getting candidates on the ticket?”

It’s obviously a hyper-complex matrix of issues all happening at once. But, I’m guessing any good-faith conversation will end up in a circular analysis covering, at the very least, the following:

• The primary system is broken - We end up with hyper-partisan candidates, because they’re the ones that drive high response and high energy in primaries. Not the best organizational leaders, probably, but the most fired up about “edge” topics. Or, the ones with enough personal ambition to put up with all the BS required these days.

• The election funding is broken - It’s accelerated since “Citizens United”, but big, dark money is turning just about every campaign in every elections into short lived, money burning machines. Us little guys are not being represented, for the most part. It would take many millions of us to counteract the Musk family, Bill Ackman, Reid Hoffman and many, many other quiet well-funded pacs who are tilting the system

• The Media landscape is making everything worse - The rise of the internet and cable broadcasting, plus a lot of deregulation over the last 40 years has lead to a media ecosystem that is driven by attention, clicks and partisan ownership. Moreover, since the Telecommunications Act of 1996 ownership of local broadcast media (local TV, local radio, local print) has gotten concentrated due to deregulation and lax oversight, meaning companies like Sinclair can heavily influence the messaging. The incentives are aligned towards inflaming anger and resentment to keep people watching. It’s blood sport for your eyeballs and there’s very little accountability for gross negligence or straight up lying.

• Civic Disengagement - Americans are overwhelmed. Despite an uptick in voting rates in the last couple elections (“the most important elections in our lifetime!!”), voter engagement is a mixed bag. Mid-term and primary turnout is weak, often less than half of the national, presidential turnout.

It’s no wonder we’re all pissed off and feeling disempowered and fatigued.

What should we do though, if we take our civic duty seriously and want to do our part to be good faith actors in "the system” (other than running for office)?

We can donate, sure. But increasingly, that feels like throwing money into a scammy hole.

We can participate in the actual elections as poll workers.

We can volunteer for campaigns.

But, what if we want to actually support reform in the election process? How can we A) get smarter about ways to make the candidate-to-official pipeline better and B) actually take some action?

I wanted to start on getting smarter, first. Even though it’s become sort of a meme to say “I do my own research”, and it could lead me down a dark alley, I am a liberal arts nerd at heart and I like to understand how things work.

Thank god the AI industrial complex has arrived just at the time I needed it the most! haha.

This would be a good time to put the AI tools to work (because my brain seems to be fried by all the election stuff).

AI: How do You eat A Donkey and an Elephant?

One bite at a time, issue by issue.

I had recently re-read Larry Jacobs book on the election system (“Democracy Under Fire”) and then watched his Westminster Town Hall lecture, so primary reform was on my mind. It seems like a good place to start, because the primary system is, essentially, the top of the funnel. It’s where a wannabe candidate starts the path to office, and where political machinery starts to work for or against the candidates themselves. Finally, it’s where the average duty-inclined citizen probably throws up her hands and opts out, because it’s hard, time consuming and contentious.

Ultimately, If we want “better” candidates, we have to reform the primaries.

There’s been a ton written on the topic of primary reform, and it’s obviously politicized very heavily. I needed some help to boil it down.

NotebookLM Helped Me Get a High Level Overview

I did some googling, and found a series of documents that seemed trustworthy, and loaded them into NotebookLM. From NotebookLM, I got the following as leading options for reforming the primary system in the US. (I’ve got the links to the documents I put into NotebookLM and the rest of the briefing document, here)

From NotebookLM¹

• Open Primaries: This reform proposes allowing all registered voters, regardless of party affiliation, to participate in primary elections. This would expand the electorate, potentially leading to more moderate candidates who appeal to a broader range of voters.

• Eliminating or Curtailing Superdelegates: Superdelegates are party officials who have additional votes and influence over candidate selection. Critics argue that they are undemocratic and can undermine the will of the voters. Proposals include eliminating them altogether or significantly reducing their influence.

• Reforming the Primary Calendar: The current system gives disproportionate power to early primary states like Iowa and New Hampshire. Proposed reforms include:

  • National Primary Day: Holding all primaries on the same day. This would give equal weight to all states and potentially reduce the influence of money and media on the outcome. However, critics argue that it could favor well-known candidates and make it difficult for lesser-known candidates to gain traction.

  • Rotating Regional Primaries: Dividing the country into regions and rotating the order in which they hold primaries. This could give more states a chance to have an early influence on the race. However, it might not entirely solve the issue of early states having an outsized impact.

  • The Delaware Plan: Grouping states by population size, with the smallest states voting first and the largest last. This aims to give smaller states more influence while preventing a presumptive nominee from emerging too early. However, critics point out that small states tend to be less diverse and may not accurately reflect the national electorate.

• Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV): This system allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed to the voters' second choices. This process continues until a candidate receives a majority. Proponents argue that RCV could lead to the election of more consensus-building candidates and reduce negative campaigning.

• Eliminating Caucuses: Caucuses are meetings where party members gather to discuss and select their preferred candidates. They are criticized for being time-consuming and inaccessible to many voters. Proposals suggest replacing caucuses with traditional primary elections.

• Top-Two Primary: This reform would hold a single primary election for all candidates, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, would then advance to the general election. Supporters argue that it could increase voter choice, reduce polarization, and make elections more competitive. However, critics are concerned about the potential for political gamesmanship and the disenfranchisement of minority party voters.

Cool, I got some good info on what’s being discussed currently. But, I wanted a more comprehensive reading list.

And, if you want, you can listen to the surprisingly good Deep Dive from the “hosts” at my NotebookLM space:

Perplexity Helped me Find & Summarize Relevant Resources

There’s so much to read, so many opinions. I wanted to narrow down the reading list and leaned on Perplexity AI to help me. The challenge with Perplexity is that it’s not clear if these are “good” or “trustworthy” articles at all. They just got pushed to the top. And, interestingly, every time I edited the query I got pretty different results (which is to be expected, but it also sort of undermines trust in the output).

Here’s what I got as suggestions for more reading:

Reimagining the Ballot: A Comprehensive Look at Primary and General Election Systems

• This paper reviews different primary systems, including open, closed, and blanket primaries, exploring their advantages and drawbacks. It highlights the potential benefits of combining blanket primaries with ranked-choice voting to improve democratic engagement.

The State of Election System Reform in 2024

• This video features an expert panel discussion on electoral reforms, focusing on upcoming changes, case studies from Alaska and Arizona, voter perspectives, and the interaction between nonpartisan primaries and ranked-choice voting.

Primary Elections Explained

• This resource from the National Conference of State Legislatures offers an overview of primary election types, including closed, open, and top-two primaries, explaining their functions and variations across different states.

The Case for Open Primaries

• This article from Open Primaries advocates for open primary systems, highlighting their potential to increase voter participation and reduce political polarization by including a broader range of voter perspectives.

Ranked Choice Voting in the United States

• FairVote’s resource provides detailed information on ranked choice voting, its implementation across various states, and its possible impact on both primary and general elections.

The Alaska Model: A New Approach to Voting and Primaries

• This Brennan Center article examines Alaska’s top-four primary system paired with ranked-choice voting, analyzing its implementation and potential benefits for reducing polarization and increasing voter choice.

The Impact of Primary Election Systems on Political Polarization

• This academic paper investigates how different primary election systems influence political polarization, offering empirical data on the outcomes of various primary types.

The Future of Primary Elections: Examining Nonpartisan and Top-Two Systems

• This report from the Center for American Progress explores nonpartisan and top-two primary systems, analyzing their potential to increase competition, broaden voter choice, and reduce extremism.

Primary Election Systems and Candidate Extremism

• This academic study examines the relationship between primary election systems and candidate extremism, discussing how different primary types might impact the ideological positioning of candidates.

The Effects of California’s Top-Two Primary on Voter Turnout

• This report from the Public Policy Institute of California analyzes how the top-two primary system affects voter turnout in California, providing valuable data on this reform’s impact on voter engagement and participation.

ChatGPT: Primary Reform Could Help Workers and Small Biz Owners

All of these reforms could help lead to better candidates, most likely. But, how do you get average people to care enough to actually do something about it? How do you create a sense of urgency that would move folks to stop other stuff (i.e. Doomscrolling, TikTok, gaming, watching the Kardashians) and put a little effort into pushing reform forward.

It’s universal. People like money. Even crimson sea crabs. Positioning reform in the election process as a way to benefit the economy could be a good way to get everybody to align on the need for reform.

Big business is throwing enough at campaigns as it is, and they are not incentivized towards reform. But, small business owners need reform because, by and large, small businesses are owned by actual voters.

I asked ChatGPT to help me understand what some potential arguments for Primary Reform would be. I shared a PDF with the articles from PerplexityAI with ChatGPT and asked for some policy analysis. The answer are surprisingly cogent, but I’m not sure these are going to get people to get fired up enough to demand change.

Here’s what ChatGPT told me:

Prompt: Considering all the articles I referenced above, and what you have in your database, how would primary reform be good for small business owners and employees of corporations in the American Economy. 

Primary reform could benefit small business owners and employees in corporations in several ways by promoting a more inclusive, moderate, and representative political environment. Here are some potential advantages:

1. Reduction of Political Polarization: Primary reforms such as open primaries, ranked-choice voting, and top-two primaries have been shown to reduce political polarization by favoring moderate candidates over extremists. For small business owners and corporate employees, a more moderate political environment can foster stable economic policies that promote business growth, reduce uncertainty, and help create a predictable regulatory landscape.

2. Increased Economic Focus in Policy Making: Candidates elected through reformed primaries may be more likely to focus on practical economic issues that impact the broader population rather than catering to narrow, ideologically driven interests. Policies that support job growth, investment in workforce training, infrastructure, and small business support are more likely to gain traction in a less polarized, more representative political environment.

3. Greater Inclusivity and Representation: Primary reforms that enable a larger pool of voters (such as open primaries) allow small business owners and corporate employees to have a stronger voice in candidate selection, which can help elevate candidates who prioritize their needs. More inclusive primary systems can also encourage candidates to develop policies that support small businesses, equitable wages, benefits, and workforce development initiatives.

4. Potential for Regulatory Balance: Reformed primary systems may encourage a shift away from partisan extremes, allowing for the development of balanced regulatory policies that don’t disproportionately favor large corporations over small businesses. Policies affecting taxes, health care, labor laws, and environmental regulations can become more balanced, supporting both business innovation and workforce protections.

5. Encouragement of Long-Term Economic Strategies: Moderate candidates often favor policies that promote economic stability and sustainable growth, which benefit both small business owners and corporate employees. For instance, ranked-choice voting and top-two primaries can increase the chances that candidates with pragmatic, long-term economic policies rise to the general election. These policies may support infrastructure investments, technology adaptation, and workforce training programs that benefit both employees and employers.

6. Promotion of Workforce-Friendly Policies: A more moderate, representative candidate pool can also lead to policies that support wage growth, job security, healthcare options, and paid leave, which directly benefit employees. A more stable and fair work environment, supported by balanced political policies, can lead to higher productivity and a healthier economic environment overall.

7. Encouragement of Nonpartisan Collaboration: By supporting a primary system that fosters nonpartisan collaboration, reforms like Alaska’s top-four primary combined with ranked-choice voting encourage candidates who are willing to work across the aisle. This nonpartisan focus can lead to more bipartisan policies, which are often more comprehensive and widely beneficial for the entire economy. Policies that are supportive of both businesses and employees are more likely to be enacted in an environment where collaboration is encouraged.

8. Increased Voter Turnout and Engagement: When more people participate in the primary process, including independents and non-party affiliates, candidates are more likely to appeal to a wider audience and focus on broadly beneficial economic issues. Increased voter engagement can lead to policies that reflect the needs of the full electorate, including business-friendly and workforce-supportive policies.

Overall, primary reform could foster an economy that better supports small businesses and employees by reducing political polarization, encouraging moderate candidates with a focus on economic stability, and promoting policies that create a balanced regulatory environment. This, in turn, could lead to stronger economic growth, more equitable opportunities, and greater support for innovation and business expansion.

Time to Act

Even ChatGPT knows that action trumps ideas (see what I did there?).

Here’s what ChatGPT suggests we all could do:

Here are three impactful steps any concerned citizen could take in the next 12 months to advocate for improvements in the primary system:

1. Engage in Advocacy for Primary Reform Legislation

Citizens can actively support legislation that promotes open primaries, ranked-choice voting, or nonpartisan primary systems in their state or local area. This can include:

• Contacting local representatives to express support for specific primary reforms.

• Participating in or starting petition drives to demonstrate public interest.

• Joining or volunteering with organizations that advocate for primary reform, such as RepresentUs or Open Primaries. These groups often provide resources for citizens to understand local reform efforts and effectively advocate.

2. Raise Awareness and Educate the Community

Citizens can play a crucial role in educating friends, family, and their communities about primary reform and its benefits. Increasing awareness can create a stronger base of support. Actions could include:

• Hosting or attending educational events, community discussions, or webinars on primary reform.

• Sharing reliable resources and articles on social media to reach a broader audience.

• Writing letters to local newspapers or creating blog posts to raise awareness about how primary reform could positively affect democracy and lead to more representative candidates.

3. Participate in Existing Primaries and Encourage Broader Voter Participation

Even before reforms are enacted, higher voter participation can help shift the outcome of primary elections toward candidates with broad appeal. Citizens can:

• Ensure they are registered to vote in their state’s primaries and encourage others to do the same.

• Educate others about the importance of voting in primaries, especially since primary elections often have much lower turnout than general elections.

• Organize or join local initiatives to increase voter turnout in primaries, including hosting voter registration drives, providing information on primary dates, and offering assistance in navigating the registration process.

These actions help create momentum for change by building public support, engaging legislators, and increasing participation, which can all contribute to a more inclusive and representative primary system.

Conclusions

This was a really rewarding exercise for me, a lay person who doesn’t really know where to begin on something complex and intractable like election reform. I got a very quick education into the issues and some decent ideas on how to take action.

Even I can understand that what came out of the tools was a broad gloss, and not super trustable. I got a rough sketch when I need high resolution GPS coordinates. Overall, though, I feel like it’s a good start.

Here’s what’s missing however:

• It would be ideal to know which individual writes, thinkers and voices I should be paying attention to.

• Taking tangible action via AI. I imagine in the next 1-2 years, AI will be able to work on our behalf, to send messages, money or respond to questions. At the very least, agents should be bringing us news, ways to act, etc.

Meanwhile, I’ve got some reading to do!

Some Non-Profits to Check Out

If you want to know which non-profits are working at the grass-roots level to reform primaries and more, Perplexity.AI has you covered. Here are 5 non-profit organizations in America to check out.

1. Unite America
   Unite America is a philanthropic venture fund that invests in nonpartisan election reform to foster a more representative and functional government. They focus on addressing issues with partisan primaries and support party-neutral reforms that improve representation, increase accountability, and put voters first

2. Open Primaries
   Open Primaries is an organization dedicated to advocating for open and nonpartisan primary systems. They work to empower voters and promote fair and inclusive elections across the country.

3. National Association of Nonpartisan Reformers (NANR)
   NANR is a coalition of individuals and organizations dedicated to increasing electoral competition and improving government functioning. They support reforms that foster a more representative and responsive government, including changes to primary systems.

4. Fair Elections Center
   While not exclusively focused on primary reform, the Fair Elections Center is a national, nonpartisan organization that works on voting rights and election reform. Their efforts include litigation and advocacy to improve election administration, which can encompass primary reform initiatives.

5. Bipartisan Policy Center
   The Bipartisan Policy Center, while not solely dedicated to primary reform, is part of a working group that addresses election and voting reforms. They collaborate with other think tanks to elevate nonpartisan proposals that can improve elections, including concepts related to primary election processes.

1. How do we quote/attribute stuff to LLM’s going forward? Block quote? Some different color text?